Meta-Analysis of Covid Lockdowns Finds Minuscule Benefit

Sorry, Guinea pigs! (Only ONE intervention worked.)

DID LOCKDOWNS WORK? The verdict on Covid restrictions

Authors:

* Jonas Herby is a special adviser at Centre for Political Studies (CEPOS), Copenhagen, Denmark.

* Lars Jonung is professor emeritus at the Department of Economics at Lund University, Sweden.

* Steve H. Hanke is professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA.

SHORT SUMMARY:

Overall conclusion on stringency index studies 

[W]e find little evidence that stricter lockdowns had a noticeable impact on COVID-19 mortality.  [T[he average lockdown in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 3.2 per cent …. [T]he most lenient lockdowns had virtually the same effect on mortality as stricter lockdowns. 

Overall conclusion on Shelter In Place Orders [SIPO] studies 

We find that SIPOs had a negligible effect on COVID-19 mortality. … only reduc[ing] COVID-19 mortality by 2.0 per cent 

[M]ultiple studies find a small positive effect [i.e. an increase in COVID deaths] of SIPOs on COVID-19 mortality.

[This could] be the result of an (asymptomatic) infected person being isolated at home under a SIPO who can infect family members with a higher viral load causing more severe illness.

Business Closures

Five studies examine the effect of business closures on COVID-19 mortality.… Three studies find a negligible effect, one study finds some effect, and another study finds a relatively large effect. 

School Closures

Closing schools reduced COVID-19 mortality rates by 5.9 per cent (precision-weighted average) with an arithmetic average of 0.2 per cent and a median of 0.0 per cent. …

Evidence from school-based studies demonstrate it is largely safe for young children (<10 years of age) to be at schools, however, older children (between 10 and 19 years of age) might facilitate transmission.’ 

Limiting gatherings 

[N]o studies have provided estimates showing that limiting gatherings reduced COVID-19 mortality. Indeed, all four studies find positive [higher COVID mortality]– and sometimes rather large – effects of limiting gatherings on mortality.